Q4 2024 Housing Market Vulnerability: A State-by-State Overview
A recent analysis by ATTOM Data has identified key areas in the United States that are facing economic challenges related to housing affordability and equity as of the fourth quarter of 2024. The report highlights that regions in California, Illinois, New York City, and parts of Florida stand out as having the highest risk of market decline.
Key Findings from the Report
According to the findings, a significant two-thirds of the 50 counties categorized as most vulnerable are situated within California, Illinois, New York City, and Florida. The criteria for determining vulnerability included factors such as:
- Housing affordability gaps
- Underwater mortgages
- Foreclosure rates
- Unemployment levels
Counties at Risk: An In-Depth Look
The report pinpointed the most threatened housing markets in and around urban centers like Chicago and New York City, along with numerous counties in Florida and 14 counties primarily located inland in California. Notably, the following counties were among the most at risk:
- Cook County, Illinois
- Kings County, New York (Brooklyn)
- Richmond County, New York (Staten Island)
- Essex County, New York
- Passaic County, New York
- Butte County, California
- Kern County, California
Safest Markets for Investment
Conversely, nearly half of the counties least likely to experience declines are found in states such as Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This subset includes markets within:
- Washington, D.C. metro area
- Nashville, Tennessee
- Richmond, Virginia
Affordability Challenges
The last 14 years have witnessed a housing boom leading to marked disparities in homeownership costs, with some regions experiencing monthly expenses that exceed three times average wages. Specific metrics from the ATTOM report reveal:
- In 28 out of 50 vulnerable counties, homeownership costs are classified as “seriously unaffordable,” consuming over 43% of local wages.
- The nationwide average demonstrates that major homeownership costs consume 34% of local wages, exceeding typical affordability thresholds.
Comparative Analysis of Risk Factors
The study analyzed 566 counties where current economic pressures and housing data were available, indicating contrasting tendencies that could either temper the housing market or ignite further escalation in home prices. Among the factors tracked, ATTOM’s Rob Barber noted:
“Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators.”
Conclusion
This comprehensive report underscores the significant disparities in housing affordability across the U.S. While certain areas continue to thrive, others are teetering on the edge of decline due to economic pressures. Stakeholders and prospective homeowners are encouraged to consider these insights carefully as they navigate the complex landscape of housing finance.
For additional information, refer to the full ATTOM report here.