Declining Tourism Projections for New York City Amid New Policies
Recent forecasts indicate a significant decline in the number of tourists expected to visit New York City this year. This shift is attributed to new tariffs and immigration policies announced by former President Donald Trump earlier this year, which are predicted to affect travel patterns, especially among international visitors.
Tourism Forecast Overview
According to the latest report from New York City Tourism + Conventions, the anticipated number of tourists for 2025 has decreased to 64.1 million, marking a drop of 3.5 million from a prior estimate of 67.6 million released in December. This reduction notably impacts international tourism, with projections forecasting 12.1 million international arrivals, down 17 percent from an earlier estimate of 14.6 million.
Effects of Policy Changes
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, highlighted the contributing factors to this decline during a briefing, linking it directly to the financial implications of the new tariffs and their subsequent impact on travel budgets. “The expected decline in tourist visits is a result of the Trump administration’s policies and the effects of tariffs on prices and disposable income,” Sacks stated, as reported by Bloomberg.
International Visitor Trends
The decrease in international tourists is particularly notable, dropping from 12.9 million visits in 2024 to the current projection for this year. This trend comes as the National Travel and Tourism Office reported a 2.4 percent fall in foreign visits to the U.S. in February 2025, with a more significant decline of 11.6 percent in March.
Regional Impact
Data from Air Canada suggests that there is a low teens percentage decline in bookings for trips to the U.S. from Canada, which aligns with these national trends. This follows a 4.6 percent fall in passenger revenue from the airline on these routes during the first quarter of 2025.
Consequences for Local Businesses
The expected downturn in tourist numbers carries serious implications for New York City’s hospitality sector. While hotel occupancy rates remained steady at 85 percent in March and April 2025, matching last year’s figures, the economic uncertainty generated by these policies has limited the development of new hotel projects. However, the upward trend in room rates continues, according to reports from The City.
Impact on Major Attractions
Iconic landmarks such as the Empire State Building are also feeling the repercussions of these falling visitor numbers. Recently, the Empire State Realty Trust reported a decline in ticket sales at its observatory, with net operating income dropping to $15 million in Q1 2025, down from $28.5 million in Q4 2024 and slightly lower than the $16.2 million reported one year prior. Christina Chiu, president of ESRT, noted that the slowdown may partly stem from “bad weather” during holiday weekends but acknowledged the need to monitor demand amidst an “uncertain” political climate.
Conclusion
The forecasts for New York City’s tourism in 2025 underline a significant challenge for the city’s economy, especially in the hospitality sector. As travelers reconsider their plans in light of these new policies, the overall economic health of the tourism industry remains precarious.
For more insights, you can reach Isabelle Durso at id****@****************er.com.